Agricultural economists are raising alarm bells about potential devastating impacts on California farming if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with proposed tariffs that could spark international trade conflicts.
A new analysis by researchers at UC Davis and North Dakota State University projects California's agricultural sector could face up to $6 billion in annual losses if major trading partners retaliate with their own tariffs. The study estimates the state could see its agricultural exports drop by as much as 25 percent in a full-scale trade war scenario.
California's river systems provide vital irrigation for farming across the state. These commodities would be particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs, according to the research.
"The worst-case scenario is pretty bleak," warns Sandro Steinbach, who directs the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University. "Tariffs are harmful to U.S. agriculture, and to California agriculture in particular, because they will invite tariff retaliation."
The president-elect has repeatedly stated his intention to impose new tariffs on imports from major trading partners including China, Mexico, and Canada. However, economists emphasize that such moves would likely trigger counter-measures targeting U.S. exports.
For California's agricultural sector, which relies heavily on international trade, the ripple effects could be severe. The state currently exports billions of dollars worth of agricultural products annually to the very nations Trump has suggested targeting with trade barriers.
The analysis examined various scenarios of escalating trade tensions and found that even moderate retaliatory measures could substantially impact California farmers' ability to sell their products in key overseas markets.
As the inauguration approaches, agricultural industry leaders and economists continue monitoring developments closely, concerned that campaign promises of aggressive trade policies could translate into real economic pain for California's farming communities.
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