Recent U.S. Census Bureau data revealed a minor uptick in California's population and slightly lower out-migration numbers, but experts say this modest gain masks deeper demographic challenges facing the Golden State.
The latest population count remains below 2020 levels, with California's growth rate trailing both the national average and key competing states. While California has grown less than 6% between 2010 and 2024, states like Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Utah have seen increases ranging from 15% to nearly 30%.
The recent population increase appears largely driven by immigration during the Biden administration years. However, this hasn't offset the broader exodus of residents from California. Between 2020 and 2024, the state gained 934,000 international migrants but lost 1.46 million residents to other states.
The demographic outlook presents concerning trends. In 2007, state projections anticipated California reaching 60 million residents by 2050. Current forecasts now estimate just 40 million by that year. Economic factors play a major role - studies show minorities often achieve higher real incomes and home ownership rates in Southern cities compared to coastal metros.
Young professionals, particularly those with degrees, are increasingly choosing to leave. In 2022, California experienced a net loss of over 200,000 migrants aged 25 or older, many holding four-year or associate degrees. Meanwhile, states like Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas saw gains in this demographic.
The state faces mounting challenges in attracting and retaining skilled workers. High housing costs and reduced economic opportunities for middle-class families continue driving the exodus. While California maintains the largest foreign-born population in the U.S., even this demographic is growing faster in competing states.
As California grapples with these population shifts, experts warn that addressing housing affordability and economic opportunity will be critical to restoring the state's traditional role as a magnet for talent and innovation.