El Nińo chances increase to 82%

El Nińo chances increase to 82%

The chances of El Ni? o conditions developing by this fall have increased but it will likely be a moderate rather than a strong El Ni? o, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said.

According to NOAA scientists, who are closely tracking the Pacific Ocean for El Ni? o, the chances of the phenomenon's occurrence by this fall are now 82 per cent, up from 78 per cent in May and 36 per cent in November last year.

El Ni? o can be described as a phenomenon when ocean waters warm, bringing wet winters to California and some other areas of the U. S.

Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist at Maryland-based Climate Prediction Center of NOAA, said, "The ocean temperatures are warmer, but we are still waiting for the atmospheric conditions to kick in."

Jan Null, of Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga, said that there was a better chance of getting above-normal rainfall than if there was no El Ni? o, but there was no guarantee.

Normally, the warmer the Pacific Ocean water along the equator, the higher chances there are of heavy rainfall during so-called El Ni? o years. During a mild El Ni? o year, when the water of the ocean is only a little warmer than average, California gets little rainfall.

California is in desperate need of rain and the region is suffering through the third consecutive year of an oppressive drought. Governor Jerry Brown has already declared a drought emergency as reservoirs are low and the state received only half of historic average rainfall during past winter.

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